All so called analysts should be required to follow up on their predictions and show to the world how accurate they were. Since I don’t make a living as an analyst, I’m happy to give you my scorecard for my 2009 predictions.
Push API
The Push API was indeed introduced in 2009. This was an easy prediction.
MobileMe API
I still think it would make sense for Apple to lock in users closer to the iPhone/Apple/MobileMe world by providing a MobileMe API for the iPhone. But nothing close to this was revealed in 2009. A clearly missed prediction.
More APIs
We definitely saw new APIs for the iPhone in 2009, including video recording and iTunes music access. We would all have liked to see more, specifically more access to the phone part of the iPhone, but I’m still going to claim this as a win.
No Major Hardware Releases
The new iPhone and iPod Touch releases were exactly as I described them: incremental improvements.
Better App Store
Apple did introduce keywords for the App Store as well as one new top list that isn’t “completely tilted towards $0.99 apps”. But I wouldn’t call the organization of the App Store “vastly improved”. I’ll claim half a point for this one.
More App Store Commerce
“Apple will introduce more commerce options for the App Store, e.g. subscriptions and separate billing for content.” I think I hit the bulls-eye on this one! Keep in mind that I made this prediction before In App Purchase was announced even to developers under NDA.
No Trials
Time limited trials were not introduced in 2009. With In App Purchase for free apps I think we got a bit closer to trials, but that also came with other headaches. I think most developers would agree that we don’t yet have a good system for creating trials for iPhone apps.
Summary
A total score of 5.5 out of 7. Not too bad. Maybe I should make a living as an analyst. 🙂
Stay tuned for my 2010 predictions coming next week. In the meantime, have a safe and Happy New Year!