The App Business Blog

All so called analysts should be required to follow up on their predictions and show to the world how accurate they were. Since I don’t make a living as an analyst, I’m happy to give you my scorecard for my 2009 predictions.

Push API

The Push API was indeed introduced in 2009. This was an easy prediction.

MobileMe API

I still think it would make sense for Apple to lock in users closer to the iPhone/Apple/MobileMe world by providing a MobileMe API for the iPhone. But nothing close to this was revealed in 2009. A clearly missed prediction.

More APIs

We definitely saw new APIs for the iPhone in 2009, including video recording and iTunes music access. We would all have liked to see more, specifically more access to the phone part of the iPhone, but I’m still going to claim this as a win.

No Major Hardware Releases

The new iPhone and iPod Touch releases were exactly as I described them: incremental improvements.

Better App Store

Apple did introduce keywords for the App Store as well as one new top list that isn’t “completely tilted towards $0.99 apps”. But I wouldn’t call the organization of the App Store “vastly improved”. I’ll claim half a point for this one.

More App Store Commerce

“Apple will introduce more commerce options for the App Store, e.g. subscriptions and separate billing for content.” I think I hit the bulls-eye on this one! Keep in mind that I made this prediction before In App Purchase was announced even to developers under NDA.

No Trials

Time limited trials were not introduced in 2009. With In App Purchase for free apps I think we got a bit closer to trials, but that also came with other headaches. I think most developers would agree that we don’t yet have a good system for creating trials for iPhone apps.

Summary

A total score of 5.5 out of 7. Not too bad. Maybe I should make a living as an analyst. 🙂
Stay tuned for my 2010 predictions coming next week. In the meantime, have a safe and Happy New Year!

written by Nick \\ tags: predictions

Push API

The push API that was announced at WWDC ’08, and scheduled to be live in September 2008, will finally debut in 2009.

Side prediction: There will be per-message fees associated with the push service.

MobileMe API

An API that was hinted at during WWDC ’08 to allow programmatic access to your data in MobileMe will be introduced.

I can’t think of a better way to lock in users to the iPhone/Apple world than an API to MobileMe. This will allow iPhone apps to really use and integrate deeply with your calendar and other features of MobileMe.

More APIs

Apple will release more official APIs that allow developers to access more features of the iPhone, e.g. SMS, Bluetooth, video recording, iTunes music, the phone itself.

Much of Apple’s marketing depends on being the purveyor of the coolest gadgets. So Apple cannot afford to see the most innovative mobile apps to be developed only for other competing platforms. 

No Major Hardware Releases

In 2009 there will only be incremental updates to the iPhone platform such as more memory, better camera, better battery, etc.

Developers are just beginning to understand the iPhone and we are starting to see some innovative apps. Fragmenting the platform with new form factors at this point would be bad. Ask any J2ME developer how much fun it is to play the “write once, test everywhere” game.

Better App Store

The organization of the App Store will be vastly improved with more categories, better keyword search, top lists that are not completely tilted towards $0.99 apps.

Reusing the iTunes infrastructure for the App Store was a stroke of genius, and probably necessary to launch the App Store in the given timeline. But now it’s clear that apps and music have diverging characteristics: 

• You typically don’t search for music to meet a specific need. 
• Pricing.
• For music, audiobooks and video, iTunes is just one of many distribution channels.

More App Store Commerce

Apple will introduce more commerce options for the App Store, e.g. subscriptions and separate billing for content.

The proliferation of ebooks as separate apps that clutter up the App Store and your iPhone home screen, could easily be avoided if there was a way to charge for content separately from apps. Add the ability to sell subscriptions or other means for developers to get recurring revenue, and we’ll see some really innovative apps and business models in the App Store.

No Trials

Probably the App Store feature most requested by developers of serious/expensive apps is to allow for free trials. I predict that this wish will not be fulfilled in 2009.

There should not be any major technical reasons preventing free trial versions of apps since FairPlay DRM already supports rentals that expire after a set time. My guess is that it’s a business decision and Apple makes too much money from “regretware”. It would be very interesting to be a fly on the wall at Apple during the discussions of revenue vs. a better quality App Store. Personally I hope I’m wrong in this prediction. 
 

What are your iPhone predictions for 2009?

written by Nick \\ tags: predictions